一、課程背景與目的：

The spread of an infectious disease involves many factors such as the agent (virus, bacteria, etc.), the host, and the environment in which transmissions take place. The purpose of modeling infectious diseases, in relation to public health, is to evaluate the process of disease spread and the most effective interventions required. Mathematical modeling of infectious diseases is growing in importance because of the various issues in disease spread and control arising from new or newly emerging diseases (e.g., SARS, dengue, Ebola, avian influenza, Zika, etc.), and because increasing data sources are now available for studying disease transmission, pathogen evolution and the impact of social behavior of the hosts. Utilizing data sources to understand the subsequent impacts on disease spread requires detailed modeling of interactions amongst pathogens and hosts, training of sophisticated modelers and development of new mathematics. 

The course is thus designed to promote interdisciplinary research in mathematical epidemiology and modeling/analysis of infectious diseases. A major component of this course is to create an environment for initiating and facilitating future interdisciplinary collaborations between infectious disease modelers and public health researcher. The central theme and aim of this networking activity is to forge strong links between theory and practice. Prospective students suitable for this course are those who have had at least 2 years of undergraduate studies in natural sciences (math, statistics, physics, etc.) or in public health/biomedical programs, and are interested in interdisciplinary research in mathematical epidemiology and modeling/analysis of infectious diseases. Graduate students, postdocs, and young researchers are most welcomed.

The course will provide exposure to students and young researchers to an interdisciplinary environment that foster cross-disciplinary interaction and networking at early stages of young researchers’ careers, and nurture future modelers of infectious diseases in Taiwan that will both contribute to interdisciplinary academic research in Taiwan, as well as to future public health policy-planning in the age of globalization.

 

二、課程大綱：

Course Outline:

Week 1

Jul 16:

Preliminaries: Basic epidemic theory and SIR model (謝英恆, 林先和, Klinkenberg). 

Introduction to infectious disease surveillance data in Taiwan (鄭皓元)

Group discussion

Jul 17:

Infectious disease epidemiology (Nishiura)

Basic reproduction number and herd immunity (Nishiura)

HIV (黃士澤)

Group discussion

Jul 18:

SIR model and computing lab (2 hrs, Klinkenberg)

Site visit to Taiwan CDC (PM)

Group discussion

Jul 19:

Adding complexity: heterogeneous mixing Part 1 (Klinkenberg)

Dengue fever (Nishiura)

Group discussion

Jul 20:

Adding complexity: heterogeneous mixing Part 2 (Klinkenberg)

Parameter estimation, sensitivity and uncertainty analysis (林先和)

Group project proposal presentations

 

Week 2

Jul 23:

Enterovirus in Taiwan (黃婉婷)

Modeling enterovirus (Wu)

Modeling TB (Pathy)

Group discussion

Jul 24:

TB in Taiwan (詹珮君)

Critical analysis of an ID modeling paper (Pathy)

Modeling interventions (Wu)

Group discussion

Jul 25:

Inference of phylogenetic and transmission trees in ID outbreaks and lab (3 hrs, Klinkenberg) 

Group discussion

Jul 26:

Put your knowledge to test (Pathy, 2 hrs)

Cost effectiveness analysis (Wu)

Group discussion

July 27:

Group project presentations

 

Week 1:

tutorial sessions for students with interdisciplinary backgrounds; computer tutorials/labs; basic of infectious diseases and modeling; model construction; infectious disease data and modeling; computational techniques for modeling; parameter estimation; current infectious diseases in Taiwan; group project sessions; group project proposals; and a field trip to visit Taiwan CDC headquarter.

Week 2:

data-driven modeling studies; special topics in modeling; group project progress report; modeling and public health policy; current infectious diseases and modeling in Taiwan; more data-driven modeling; group project session; group project presentation.